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Methodology

How the Local Market Rating is built

The Local Market Rating is one number between 0 and 100 that answers a single question: in this postcode district, right now, who has the upper hand, the buyer or the seller? We take nine separate measures of the local market, weight each by how much it actually moves prices, and combine them. Everything below shows exactly what goes in and how much it counts.

What moves the number

Each signal is scored 0 to 100 on its own, then counted by how much it actually shifts prices. The wider the block, the more it counts.

  • Price Momentum17%
  • Supply and Demand Balance17%
  • Mortgage Affordability13%
  • Sales Velocity13%
  • Surveyor Sentiment10%
  • Rental Yield10%
  • New Listings Volume10%
  • Planning Pipeline7%
  • Local Employment3%

Two signals

Price momentum and supply against demand carry a third of the score between them.

Seven others

Affordability, speed of sale, surveyor sentiment, yield, listings, planning and jobs.

One rescale

The weighted total is stretched back across the full 0 to 100 range.

Show the arithmetic

Score = (Price Momentum × 0.17) + (Supply and Demand Balance × 0.17) + (Mortgage Affordability × 0.13) + (Sales Velocity × 0.13) + (Surveyor Sentiment × 0.10) + (Rental Yield × 0.10) + (New Listings Volume × 0.10) + (Planning Pipeline × 0.07) + (Local Employment × 0.03)

Weights sum to 100. Every sub-index is normalised to 0 to 100 before weighting, and the composite is re-normalised afterwards so the full range stays usable.

The nine sub-indices

📈

Price Momentum

17% weight

How fast sold prices are moving. We take the average sold price over the last six months and compare it with the same six months a year earlier. Prices going up score above 50, prices going down score below. We adjust for the fact that spring is always busier than winter.

6-month rolling average sold priceYear-on-year change vs national averageSeasonal adjustment applied

Source: HM Land Registry UK HPI

⚖️

Supply and Demand Balance

17% weight

How much is for sale against how much is actually selling, measured against the national picture. Not much on the market but plenty selling means sellers hold the cards. Lots on the market and little selling means buyers do.

Active listings count per districtMonthly transaction volumeListing-to-sale ratio vs national benchmark

Source: HM Land Registry

🏦

Mortgage Affordability

13% weight

How many years of local salary it takes to buy a local home, compared with the long-run national average. We also factor in what mortgages currently cost. When buying is a stretch, demand softens and this signal scores lower.

Median house price to median income ratioBoE effective mortgage rateGross mortgage payments as % of take-home pay

Source: Bank of England + ONS

⏱️

Sales Velocity

13% weight

How long homes take to sell here against the national middle. Quick sales score high, slow ones score low. We work this out by comparing when a home was listed with when the sale was registered at the Land Registry.

Average days from listing to completionShare of sales completing within 60 daysComparison against 12-month district average

Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data

📋

Surveyor Sentiment

10% weight

What chartered surveyors on the ground expect next. RICS asks them each month whether buyer enquiries, agreed sales and prices are rising or falling. If more expect rises than falls, this scores above 50. It is the one signal that looks forward rather than back.

Net buyer enquiry balanceNet new instructions balance3-month price expectation balance

Source: RICS Residential Market Survey

🏘️

Rental Yield

10% weight

What a typical home here earns as a rental, before costs, worked out from local rents against local sold prices. Strong yields pull in landlords, which supports prices. When yields drop below what a mortgage costs, investors stop buying.

Median private monthly rentMedian sold priceGross yield vs national average

Source: ONS Private Rental Market Survey

🏠

New Listings Volume

10% weight

How many new homes came to market this month against last. A sudden jump often means sellers are trying to get ahead of a softening market. Fewer new listings while demand holds steady tends to support prices.

New instructions month-on-month changeStock level vs 3-year averageInstructions-to-withdrawal ratio

Source: Portal listing data

🏗️

Planning Pipeline

7% weight

How much new housing is in the planning system locally. Plenty of approvals means more homes coming, which eases pressure later. A thin pipeline in an area people want to live keeps pressure on.

Applications and decisions by local authorityPipeline direction over timeLocal supply context

Source: DLUHC planning application statistics

💼

Local Employment

3% weight

Whether local jobs are holding up, measured by how many people are claiming unemployment benefits. More people in work means more people able to buy. It carries the least weight because it moves slowly.

Claimant count trendChange against the previous periodLocal authority employment context

Source: ONS claimant count via Nomis

Additional premium data sources

HM Land Registry SPARQL endpoint

Live

Exact postcode and nearby sold prices with address, property type, and sale date

Source documentation

DLUHC EPC Open Data API

Live

Floor area and EPC-linked property attributes

Source documentation

Google Street View Static API

Live

Street-view thumbnails for recent sales rows

Source documentation

Property enrichment provider (PropertyData or PaTMa)

Live

Historical listing thumbnails and listing enrichment

Source documentation

Bank of England + ONS + HMLR

Live

Core index scoring inputs and district intelligence factors

Source documentation

How the indicative valuation estimate works

1

Gather sold evidence

We pull every registered sale from HM Land Registry for your postcode and the surrounding area. Where available, each sale is enriched with EPC floor area data so we can calculate a price per square foot.

2

Filter and weight comparables

Sales older than three years are excluded. Same property-type sales (for example, terraced houses when you're looking at a terraced house) are given much higher relevance than cross-type sales. More recent sales carry more weight, on a curve. A sale six months ago counts for considerably more than one from two years ago.

3

Trim outliers

When enough floor area data is present, we remove the top and bottom 5% of price-per-sqft outliers before computing the range. This prevents a single unusual transaction from distorting the estimate.

4

Set the range

The low, mid, and high figures are derived from the distribution of the weighted comparable prices. When floor area data is present on most comparables, price-per-sqft is used as the primary axis and multiplied by the median floor area. Otherwise, raw sold prices are used directly.

5

Apply a small market adjustment

A small market-pressure adjustment is applied using the current Local Market Rating. It nudges the range up slightly in a strong seller's market and down slightly in a buyer's market. The adjustment is deliberately small and never overrides the sold evidence.

Confidence tiers

Every valuation range carries a confidence tier. This tells you how much weight you should place on the estimate relative to a professional valuation.

High confidence

At least 3 sales in the exact postcode, at least 5 comparables in total, and the median comparable is less than 24 months old. The most reliable range we produce, based on real recent sales very close to your property.

Medium confidence

At least 4 usable comparables available but with fewer exact-postcode matches or a slightly older sample. The range is still grounded in real local sold evidence but involves more interpolation.

Weak confidence

Only 2 or 3 usable comparables, or the comparable pool is more than three years old on median. The range is directional. Treat it as a sanity check rather than a firm estimate.

Very weak confidence

Fewer than 2 usable comparables, or the estimate has had to fall back to older and wider district evidence because recent local sales are very thin. Treat as a broad area indicator only.

Evidence tiers

The evidence tier tells you where the comparable sales used in your estimate came from. It is always shown alongside the confidence tier on the dashboard.

📍

Exact postcode

Comparables drawn from sales registered at the same postcode as your search. This is the strongest evidence available. Real sales happened on your street or very close to it, registered under the same unit postcode.

📍

Nearby comparables

Comparables drawn from surrounding postcodes within approximately 0.5 miles. This is used when there are not enough exact-postcode sales to build a reliable range. The estimate is still grounded in recent local sales but the properties may differ more in character.

📊

District estimate

Comparables drawn from the wider postcode district when local sales are sparse. The range reflects what properties have sold for across the district rather than at street level. This is most common in rural areas or where a full postcode has seen very little recent activity.

Data quality and fallbacks

Where district-level data is available in our database, scores are computed from that district directly. If a full district match is not available, we attempt a parent district match (for example, WA14 falling back to WA1). If neither is available, we generate a regional estimate from HMLR UK HPI regional averages. All fallbacks are clearly labelled on the results page so you always know the data tier you are viewing.

Limitations and disclaimers

The Local Market Rating is a market intelligence tool and does not constitute financial, investment or mortgage advice. Scores reflect available data at the time of computation and are updated monthly. Micro-market conditions within a postcode district can vary significantly street by street and are not captured at this level. UK Property Index accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of scores or market classifications shown on this site.

Methodology | UK Property Index