Methodology

How the Local Market Rating is built

The Local Market Rating is generated from our own seven-signal UK Property Index model. We combine independently sourced market inputs into a single 0-100 number, weight each one by its relevance to real pricing conditions, then turn that into a working measure of buyer versus seller pressure in each postcode district.

Composite formula

Score = (Price Momentum × 0.17) + (Supply/Demand × 0.17)
       + (Affordability × 0.13) + (Sales Velocity × 0.13)
       + (Surveyor Sentiment × 0.10) + (Rental Yield × 0.10)
       + (New Listings × 0.10) + (other signals × 0.10)

Each sub-index is individually normalised to a 0-100 scale before weighting. The final Local Market Rating is then re-normalised to keep the full 0-100 range intact.

The seven sub-indices

📈

Price Momentum

17% weight

Measures the rate of change in average sold prices over the trailing 6 months compared to the same period a year prior. A rising market scores above 50; a falling market below. Adjusted for seasonal effects.

6-month rolling average sold priceYear-on-year change vs national averageSeasonal adjustment applied

Source: HM Land Registry UK HPI

⚖️

Supply and Demand Balance

17% weight

The ratio of active listings to completed transactions in the district, indexed against the national average. Low supply relative to transactions indicates seller conditions; high supply relative to transactions indicates buyer conditions.

Active listings count per districtMonthly transaction volumeListing-to-sale ratio vs national benchmark

Source: HM Land Registry

🏦

Mortgage Affordability

13% weight

The ratio of median local property prices to median local gross earnings, compared against the national long-run average. Higher affordability pressure depresses demand and scores lower on this sub-index.

Median house price to median income ratioBoE effective mortgage rateGross mortgage payments as % of take-home pay

Source: Bank of England + ONS

⏱️

Sales Velocity

13% weight

Average time from listing to sale completion in the district, compared against the national median. Fast-moving markets score high; stagnant markets score low. Derived from listing date and registration date cross-referenced via HMLR records.

Average days from listing to completionShare of sales completing within 60 daysComparison against 12-month district average

Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data

📋

Surveyor Sentiment

10% weight

A forward-looking indicator derived from professional surveyor assessments of buyer enquiries, agreed sales and 3-month price expectations. Scored on a net balance basis - more respondents expecting rises than falls scores above 50.

Net buyer enquiry balanceNet new instructions balance3-month price expectation balance

Source: RICS Residential Market Survey

🏘️

Rental Yield

10% weight

Gross rental yield for the district derived from median private rental prices and median sold prices. Higher yields attract investment demand, supporting prices. Very low yields relative to mortgage rates suppress investor activity.

Median private monthly rentMedian sold priceGross yield vs national average

Source: ONS Private Rental Market Survey

🏠

New Listings Volume

10% weight

Month-on-month change in the volume of new properties coming to market in the district. A sharp rise in new instructions can signal sellers moving ahead of an anticipated softening; a fall in supply with steady demand supports prices.

New instructions month-on-month changeStock level vs 3-year averageInstructions-to-withdrawal ratio

Source: Portal listing data

Additional premium data sources

HM Land Registry SPARQL endpoint

Live

Exact postcode and nearby sold prices with address, property type, and sale date

Source documentation

DLUHC EPC Open Data API

Live

Floor area and EPC-linked property attributes

Source documentation

Google Street View Static API

Live

Street-view thumbnails for recent sales rows

Source documentation

Property enrichment provider (PropertyData or PaTMa)

Live

Historical listing thumbnails and listing enrichment

Source documentation

Bank of England + ONS + HMLR

Live

Core index scoring inputs and district intelligence factors

Source documentation

How the indicative valuation estimate works

1

Gather sold evidence

We pull every registered sale from HM Land Registry for your postcode and the surrounding area. Where available, each sale is enriched with EPC floor area data so we can calculate a price per square foot.

2

Filter and weight comparables

Sales older than three years are excluded. Same property-type sales (for example, terraced houses when you're looking at a terraced house) are given much higher relevance than cross-type sales. More recent sales are weighted more heavily using an exponential decay curve — a sale six months ago matters significantly more than one two years ago.

3

Trim outliers

When enough floor area data is present, we remove the top and bottom 5% of price-per-sqft outliers before computing the range. This prevents a single unusual transaction from distorting the estimate.

4

Set the range

The low, mid, and high figures are derived from the distribution of the weighted comparable prices. When floor area data is present on most comparables, price-per-sqft is used as the primary axis and multiplied by the median floor area. Otherwise, raw sold prices are used directly.

5

Apply a small market adjustment

A modest market-pressure adjustment is applied based on the current Local Market Rating. This nudges the range slightly upward in a strong seller's market and slightly downward in a buyer's market — but it is intentionally small and never overrides the actual sold evidence.

Confidence tiers

Every valuation range carries a confidence tier. This tells you how much weight you should place on the estimate relative to a professional valuation.

High confidence

At least 3 sales in the exact postcode, at least 5 comparables in total, and the median comparable is less than 24 months old. The most reliable range we produce — based on real recent transactions very close to your property.

Medium confidence

At least 4 usable comparables available but with fewer exact-postcode matches or a slightly older sample. The range is still grounded in real local sold evidence but involves more interpolation.

Weak confidence

Only 2 or 3 usable comparables, or the comparable pool is more than three years old on median. The range is directional — treat it as a sanity check, not a firm estimate.

Very weak confidence

Fewer than 2 usable comparables, or the estimate has had to fall back to older and wider district evidence because recent local sales are very thin. Treat as a broad area indicator only.

Evidence tiers

The evidence tier tells you where the comparable sales used in your estimate came from. It is always shown alongside the confidence tier on the dashboard.

📍

Exact postcode

Comparables drawn from sales registered at the same postcode as your search. This is the strongest possible evidence — it means real transactions happened on your street or very nearby and were registered under the same unit postcode.

📍

Nearby comparables

Comparables drawn from surrounding postcodes within approximately 0.5 miles. This is used when there are not enough exact-postcode sales to build a reliable range. The estimate is still grounded in recent local sales but the properties may differ more in character.

📊

District estimate

Comparables drawn from the wider postcode district when local sales are sparse. The range reflects what properties have sold for across the district rather than at street level. This is most common in rural areas or where a full postcode has seen very little recent activity.

Data quality and fallbacks

Where district-level data is available in our database, scores are computed from that district directly. If a full district match is not available, we attempt a parent district match (for example, WA14 falling back to WA1). If neither is available, we generate a regional estimate from HMLR UK HPI regional averages. All fallbacks are clearly labelled on the results page so you always know the data tier you are viewing.

Limitations and disclaimers

The Local Market Rating is a market intelligence tool and does not constitute financial, investment or mortgage advice. Scores reflect available data at the time of computation and are updated monthly. Micro-market conditions within a postcode district can vary significantly street by street and are not captured at this level. UK Property Index accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of scores or market classifications shown on this site.

Methodology | UK Property Index