How the Local Market Rating is built
The Local Market Rating is one number between 0 and 100 that answers a single question: in this postcode district, right now, who has the upper hand, the buyer or the seller? We take nine separate measures of the local market, weight each by how much it actually moves prices, and combine them. Everything below shows exactly what goes in and how much it counts.
What moves the number
Each signal is scored 0 to 100 on its own, then counted by how much it actually shifts prices. The wider the block, the more it counts.
- Price Momentum17%
- Supply and Demand Balance17%
- Mortgage Affordability13%
- Sales Velocity13%
- Surveyor Sentiment10%
- Rental Yield10%
- New Listings Volume10%
- Planning Pipeline7%
- Local Employment3%
Two signals
Price momentum and supply against demand carry a third of the score between them.
Seven others
Affordability, speed of sale, surveyor sentiment, yield, listings, planning and jobs.
One rescale
The weighted total is stretched back across the full 0 to 100 range.
Show the arithmetic
Score = (Price Momentum × 0.17) + (Supply and Demand Balance × 0.17) + (Mortgage Affordability × 0.13) + (Sales Velocity × 0.13) + (Surveyor Sentiment × 0.10) + (Rental Yield × 0.10) + (New Listings Volume × 0.10) + (Planning Pipeline × 0.07) + (Local Employment × 0.03)
Weights sum to 100. Every sub-index is normalised to 0 to 100 before weighting, and the composite is re-normalised afterwards so the full range stays usable.
The nine sub-indices
Price Momentum
How fast sold prices are moving. We take the average sold price over the last six months and compare it with the same six months a year earlier. Prices going up score above 50, prices going down score below. We adjust for the fact that spring is always busier than winter.
Source: HM Land Registry UK HPI
Supply and Demand Balance
How much is for sale against how much is actually selling, measured against the national picture. Not much on the market but plenty selling means sellers hold the cards. Lots on the market and little selling means buyers do.
Source: HM Land Registry
Mortgage Affordability
How many years of local salary it takes to buy a local home, compared with the long-run national average. We also factor in what mortgages currently cost. When buying is a stretch, demand softens and this signal scores lower.
Source: Bank of England + ONS
Sales Velocity
How long homes take to sell here against the national middle. Quick sales score high, slow ones score low. We work this out by comparing when a home was listed with when the sale was registered at the Land Registry.
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data
Surveyor Sentiment
What chartered surveyors on the ground expect next. RICS asks them each month whether buyer enquiries, agreed sales and prices are rising or falling. If more expect rises than falls, this scores above 50. It is the one signal that looks forward rather than back.
Source: RICS Residential Market Survey
Rental Yield
What a typical home here earns as a rental, before costs, worked out from local rents against local sold prices. Strong yields pull in landlords, which supports prices. When yields drop below what a mortgage costs, investors stop buying.
Source: ONS Private Rental Market Survey
New Listings Volume
How many new homes came to market this month against last. A sudden jump often means sellers are trying to get ahead of a softening market. Fewer new listings while demand holds steady tends to support prices.
Source: Portal listing data
Planning Pipeline
How much new housing is in the planning system locally. Plenty of approvals means more homes coming, which eases pressure later. A thin pipeline in an area people want to live keeps pressure on.
Local Employment
Whether local jobs are holding up, measured by how many people are claiming unemployment benefits. More people in work means more people able to buy. It carries the least weight because it moves slowly.
Source: ONS claimant count via Nomis
Additional premium data sources
HM Land Registry SPARQL endpoint
LiveExact postcode and nearby sold prices with address, property type, and sale date
Source documentationProperty enrichment provider (PropertyData or PaTMa)
LiveHistorical listing thumbnails and listing enrichment
Source documentationBank of England + ONS + HMLR
LiveCore index scoring inputs and district intelligence factors
Source documentationHow the indicative valuation estimate works
Gather sold evidence
We pull every registered sale from HM Land Registry for your postcode and the surrounding area. Where available, each sale is enriched with EPC floor area data so we can calculate a price per square foot.
Filter and weight comparables
Sales older than three years are excluded. Same property-type sales (for example, terraced houses when you're looking at a terraced house) are given much higher relevance than cross-type sales. More recent sales carry more weight, on a curve. A sale six months ago counts for considerably more than one from two years ago.
Trim outliers
When enough floor area data is present, we remove the top and bottom 5% of price-per-sqft outliers before computing the range. This prevents a single unusual transaction from distorting the estimate.
Set the range
The low, mid, and high figures are derived from the distribution of the weighted comparable prices. When floor area data is present on most comparables, price-per-sqft is used as the primary axis and multiplied by the median floor area. Otherwise, raw sold prices are used directly.
Apply a small market adjustment
A small market-pressure adjustment is applied using the current Local Market Rating. It nudges the range up slightly in a strong seller's market and down slightly in a buyer's market. The adjustment is deliberately small and never overrides the sold evidence.
Confidence tiers
Every valuation range carries a confidence tier. This tells you how much weight you should place on the estimate relative to a professional valuation.
At least 3 sales in the exact postcode, at least 5 comparables in total, and the median comparable is less than 24 months old. The most reliable range we produce, based on real recent sales very close to your property.
At least 4 usable comparables available but with fewer exact-postcode matches or a slightly older sample. The range is still grounded in real local sold evidence but involves more interpolation.
Only 2 or 3 usable comparables, or the comparable pool is more than three years old on median. The range is directional. Treat it as a sanity check rather than a firm estimate.
Fewer than 2 usable comparables, or the estimate has had to fall back to older and wider district evidence because recent local sales are very thin. Treat as a broad area indicator only.
Evidence tiers
The evidence tier tells you where the comparable sales used in your estimate came from. It is always shown alongside the confidence tier on the dashboard.
Exact postcode
Comparables drawn from sales registered at the same postcode as your search. This is the strongest evidence available. Real sales happened on your street or very close to it, registered under the same unit postcode.
Nearby comparables
Comparables drawn from surrounding postcodes within approximately 0.5 miles. This is used when there are not enough exact-postcode sales to build a reliable range. The estimate is still grounded in recent local sales but the properties may differ more in character.
District estimate
Comparables drawn from the wider postcode district when local sales are sparse. The range reflects what properties have sold for across the district rather than at street level. This is most common in rural areas or where a full postcode has seen very little recent activity.
Data quality and fallbacks
Where district-level data is available in our database, scores are computed from that district directly. If a full district match is not available, we attempt a parent district match (for example, WA14 falling back to WA1). If neither is available, we generate a regional estimate from HMLR UK HPI regional averages. All fallbacks are clearly labelled on the results page so you always know the data tier you are viewing.
Limitations and disclaimers
The Local Market Rating is a market intelligence tool and does not constitute financial, investment or mortgage advice. Scores reflect available data at the time of computation and are updated monthly. Micro-market conditions within a postcode district can vary significantly street by street and are not captured at this level. UK Property Index accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of scores or market classifications shown on this site.